High Conviction Long Strategy Analyzer

High Conviction Long Analyzer

Testing the "Leverage + Deep Pockets" thesis. Is it smarter to leverage a low-cap coin, or just buy it on Spot?

1. Strategy Configuration

Configure your long position. We'll calculate if your "Added Margin" makes you invincible.

Position Setup

Entry Price ($)

Initial Capital ($)

50

Leverage (x)

20

Added Safety Margin ($)

Cash locked to prevent liquidation.

1000

Position Value

$1000

Total Cash Committed

$1050

Liquidation Price

$0.0000

(-100% Drop)

2. The "Rug Pull" Stress Test

Low marketcap coins are notorious for dropping 90-99% in value during bear cycles or due to bad news. Can your strategy survive a catastrophic drop?

Critical Note: Unlike shorts (which are capped at 100% gain/loss logic), longs can only lose 100% of the price. If your Liquidation Price is $0 or less, you are mathematically impossible to liquidate (unless fees drain your margin).

3. The Hidden Cost: Funding Fees vs. Spot

This is the most important part of your research. If you hold a Long position in a perp contract, you typically PAY funding fees. If you bought the same amount on Spot, you pay $0 daily fees.

Daily Funding Rate (%)

0% (Bear Market) 0.03% 0.1% (Bull Run)

At 0.03% daily:

• You pay $0.30 per day.
• You pay $109.50 per year.

Spot Cost: $0.00

4. Research Conclusion

The Art of the Asymmetric Bet

"You don't need to be right often. You just need to be right big." This tool analyzes the Risk/Reward geometry of your most confident long-term investments.

📐 Understanding "R-Multiples"

A "High Conviction" trade isn't just a trade you like; it's a trade where the math is overwhelmingly in your favor. We look for a 1:3 Ratio or better.

Why 1:3 Matters:

• If you risk $100 to make $300, you can be wrong 70% of the time and still make money.
• Math: Lose 2 trades (-$200). Win 1 trade (+$300). Net Profit: +$100.

This calculator forces you to be honest: Is the potential upside really 3x the risk, or are you just hoping?

🔎 Fundamental Validation

True conviction comes from data, not emotion. Before entering a "High Conviction" long, ask:

• Utility: Does this asset solve a real-world problem?
• Adoption: Are user numbers growing or shrinking?
• Moat: Is it hard for a competitor to copy them?

If you cannot answer these, you are gambling, not investing. Use the "Notes" section of your plan to write down your thesis. If the thesis changes, the trade invalidates.

Strategy FAQ

When should I take profit?

High conviction doesn't mean "hold forever." It is wise to set "Take Profit" (TP) targets along the way. For example, selling 20% of your position when the price doubles allows you to remove your initial risk ("Risk Free Ride") while keeping the rest invested for the moonshot.

What invalidates a long term hold?

Price dropping is not necessarily an invalidation. However, a change in fundamentals is. For example, if the company CEO quits, or a competitor releases a better product, your "High Conviction" thesis might be broken, regardless of the price.

Disclaimer: Financial analysis tools are for educational purposes. "High Conviction" is a subjective term and does not guarantee performance. Past results are not indicative of future returns.